Monday, January 12, 2009

Jim Rice makes it to Cooperstown

I said last year that I'd be happy to see Jim Rice make it in, but I thought he was one of those "just shy guys", and that both Dwight Evans and Andre Dawson were more deserving. I stand by what I said, but I also remain very happy for Rice that he finally made it, on his last year of eligibility.

Rickey Henderson, of course, was a no-brainer, as much as Tom Seaver, Cal Ripken, Willie Mays, Ted Williams and Bob Gibson. Henderson was not only the greatest leadoff hitter of all time, he redefined the position. Sure, he could be an annoying showboat, but as the saying goes, "it ain't bragging if you can back it up", and Henderson always did. He got in on the first ballot, as he should have.

Here's what I don't understand and never did:
Why did Rice have to wait 15 years? If he was deserving this year, he was deserving last year, too, and in fact he was deserving on his first year of eligibility. Rice didn't get any more hits, RBI or homers between his last game on August 3, 1989 and today. His statistics were the same that day, just as they were when he was eligible in 1994 (and didn't come close to induction) as they are now. Either the guy's a Hall of Famer or he's not. Exactly how could a voter look at the same guy, with the same stats, the same history and the same strengths and weaknesses, and say "he's not a hall of famer, sorry", do that again year after year after year, and then suddenly decide at the proverbial last minute "Ok, NOW he deserves to be inducted".

I have a little trouble with voters who don't have the courage of their convictions.

Then there are the guys with BETTER numbers, who don't get voted in until later (or possibly never). Candidate #1 is Mr. Andre Dawson. Again, I don't begrudge Rice his plaque, I'm just saying I can't understand why Rice is going to be in Cooperstown while Dawson still isn't. Candidate #2 is, of course, Dwight Evans, who won't ever get in, unless the veterans committee does the right thing some years from now.

In any case, congratulations to Jim Rice. After he's inducted, the next thing that should happen is his #14 should be retired on Fenway's right field facade, alongside Bobby Doerr, Joe Cronin, Johnny Pesky, Carl Yastrzemski, Ted Williams, Carlton Fisk and Jackie Robinson. That'll be a great ceremony, even better than the one in Cooperstown next summer.

Saturday, January 10, 2009

Give me your tired, your poor...

2008 statistics

Pitcher 1      45 appearances, 47 innings, 4 wins, 4 losses, 18 saves 2.49 ERA, on the Disabled List for 2 months with a partially torn elbow tendon.

Pitcher 2      6 appearances, 28 innings, 3 wins, 2 losses, 2.57 ERA, on the Disabled List after June 2, due to shoulder surgery

Pitcher 3      19 appearances, 94 2/3 innings, 6 wins, 9 losses, 6.27 ERA, on the Disabled List for two months with shoulder tendonitis and bursitis

Player 4      28 games, 80 at bats, 4 HR, 14 RBI, .263 BA, .344 OBP, on the disabled list from the beginning of the season to the beginning of August with a mitochondrial disorder

Player 5      57 games, 178 at bats, 1 HR, 16 RBI, .202 BA, .279 OBP, on the disabled list 3 times for a total of 3 months with sprained left ankle and right triceps

Those are the players signed by the Red Sox since they lost out on Mark Teixiera at Christmas. None of them were worth a damn at any point last year, and all of them were signed for peanuts, in the desperate hope that Boston will have signed five nominees for comeback player of the year. Can you guess who’s who?

Pitcher 1 is former Dodgers’ closer Takashi Saito, who will be a setup guy, along with Justin Masterson, Manny Delcarmen and Hideki Okajima. Saito saved 39 games in 2007, but the Dodgers cut him loose this winter after his elbow literally fell apart last year. We now have three Japanese pitchers. Don’t tell ME that Boston is a prejudiced, xenophobic town!

Pitcher 2 is future Hall of Famer John Smoltz, who’s been signed as the 6th (or 7th ) starter. He turns 42 on May 15. He’s faced over 14,000 hitters in his career (400 more than Dennis Eckersley), has started 466 games (30 more than Curt Schilling) and has 13 more career saves than Mike Timlin. He’s my favorite pitcher ever to wear #29, though he’ll have to buy it from hitting coach Dave Magadan if he’s going to have that uniform number with the Red Sox. They don’t even expect Smoltzie to appear until at least the end of May, possibly later. That’s ok, though. They don’t need him right away, because they also signed…..

Pitcher 3: Brad Penny. He started the 2007 All Star game for the Dodgers, and went on to win the National League Cy Young Award with a 16-4 record. Last year his shoulder gave out, and it remains 6-5 and pick ‘em whether or not Penny actually has anything left in the tank or if 2008 was the beginning of the end.

Meanwhile, Player 4 is prodigal son Rocco Baldelli. Three or four years ago, Baldelli was the next Carl Yastrzemski, Torii Hunter or Mickey Mantle, only in an ugly Rays uniform. He could do it all: hit triples, homers, move runners over, knock them in, and run down everything hit to any field. Then he got hurt and stayed hurt. A hamstring injury became chronic fatigue, which then became a mitochondrial disorder, and now, according to Mass General Hospital, something called “channelopathy”, which I suppose means either his CBS, his A&E or his HBO are sick. We have good service from both Verizon and Comcast here in Boston, so Baldelli should be all better now. And he’s from Woonsocket, which gives us our token Local Boy. This means we finally have a replacement for Brian Daubach and Lou Merloni.

Player 5 is Josh Bard, the pivotal 9th string catcher. It’s important to have that key guy on your roster who can hit .202 and let by dozens of passed balls.

We still don’t have a first string catcher or a proven, dependable shortstop. However, we now have five guys who spent a combined 15 months on the disabled list last year. Remember, this is adding to a roster that ALREADY includes JD Drew, Julio Lugo, Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell. Those four guys combined for close to nine months on the DL during the 2008 season. Damn, I’m excited about 2009, aren’t you?

Saturday, December 27, 2008

Red Sox offseason - 2008-2009

The Red Sox were outplayed by the Rays in the ALCS and now they’ve been completely outclassed by the Yankees in the offseason. The first one was a mild surprise, but the second one shouldn’t have been. If you think it is, you’re not paying attention. Since the advent of the free agent era, the Yankees have signed nearly every free agent they’ve set their minds to acquiring. From Catfish Hunter and Reggie Jackson, and Bernie Williams through Jose Contreras, Carl Pavano, Mike Mussina, Alex Rodriguez and Johnny Damon, the Evil Empire cannot and will not be outspent. This winter, they committed $423 million to three players: CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett and Mark Teixiera. That’s closing in on half a BILLION dollars. On three players. Three. Burnett is as fragile as spun glass. Sabathia is a Wendy’s triple combo meal from outweighing an NFL offensive lineman, though I must admit Orlando Pace doesn’t have a very good changeup. Mark Teixiera is, well, very, very good.

If you look at the Yankees’ history, some of the signings were brilliant (Reggie, Bernie and Mussina) while others were downright boneheaded (Pavano, Kei Igawa, Jaret Wright) However, the wisdom of the signings or the dollars doled out aren’t the point. The lesson the Red Sox should learn is much simpler: stop competing with New York for the mega-dollar free agents. Stick to the mantra of building the team the way it’s been done successfully in the Theo Epstein era: research smart trades, continue the shrewd drafting, consider signing more affordable, mid-level free agents (familiar with this guy?) and keep concentrating on solid player development. Every now and then, they’re going to nab a big, key free agent (Foulke, Schilling, Dice-K), but if the Yankees are in the mix and really want the guy, the Red Sox (and everyone else, for that matter) are going to lose every single time. Bidding wars are pointless and futile, so stop getting into the no-win battles.
Also, some of the big free agent signings aren’t going to pan out the way you’d like. JD Drew is a decent, serviceable outfielder, but he's AJ Burnett's brother in durability. Do you really think $70 million for five years was wise? Also, can you say Edgar Renteria? How about Julio Lugo? Let’s not do that again, ok?


The core of the new millennium Red Sox is home grown: Youk, MVP Kid Dustin Pedroia, No-hitter survivor Jon Lester, Bostonian Manny Delcarmen and Championship Jigmaster Papelbon. The next two waves are either already here or very soon on their way: Buchholz, Ellsbury, Masterson and Lowrie are here already. Michael Bowden, Daniel Bard, Josh Reddick, Junichi Tazawa and Lars Anderson are part of the coming attractions. This isn’t a new concept: the Minnesota Twins and Florida Marlins, who didn’t have the financial wherewithal to compete with any rich teams, built World Series champions this way. The Tampa Bay Rays used this exact philosophy to build the 2008 American League championship team. I’m pissed off that the Sox couldn’t sign Teixiera, but not surprised. We’re rich, but not Yankee rich. What we are, though, is stocked with young talent. Don’t panic. Seeing Mark Teixiera wearing #25 in pinstripes will suck, but it’s not the end of the world. The Red Sox remain very good, and are only a few pieces away from domination again.

Here’s what has to happen between now and opening day:

• Settle the catching question. Either give Jason Varitek a sane offer or pull off a trade for a young catcher such as Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Taylor Teagarden or Miguel Montero. It might cost us Clay Buchholz, but would you rather do that, or go back to the Rich Gedman/Mike Stanley/Bob Montgomery days?
• Grab one more starter. Post-Christmas deals are available out there for folks like John Smoltz, Andy Pettitte and Brad Penny. It’ll cost barely more than the Sox paid for Bartolo Colon, and could yield far better dividends.
• A solid bat: If we had signed Teixiera, this wouldn’t be a problem, but nobody knows how healthy David Ortiz and Mike Lowell will be, and Lars Anderson isn’t ready yet. This might require a trade. Or not. See below.
• Another outfielder: everyone’s talking about Rocco Baldelli. Yeah, maybe. Fourth outfielders are a dime a dozen. Dozens of choices remain out there on the bargain basement shelf. Personally, I think Bobby Abreu might look good with “Red Sox” across his chest, and I can’t imagine he’ll be in Teixiera’s contract neighborhood.
• Extend Kevin Youkilis, Jon Lester and Jonathan Papelbon to long-term deals. Look, we locked up new MVP Dustin Pedroia for a multi-year deal before he could hit the open market and become Yankee/Met/Angels-eligible. The same needs to be done for Youkilis, Lester and Papelbon, for less than the total money that would have been spent on Teixiera. We can’t lose those guys. They’re far too important. That’s one of the secrets of the Tampa Bay Rays: They signed Evan Longoria to a grown-up contract right away: what seemed silly at the time is now brilliant. No matter what you pay when they’re young is a screaming deal compared to what will happen when “Scott Boras” is attached to their name in news stories.

Sunday, October 12, 2008

2008 ALCS after game 2

When Terry Francona set his ALCS rotation against the Rays, his logic was that the starters for games 1-3 would also start games 5-7. With last night’s extra-inning loss, Dice-K is now guaranteed for game 5, which would be the final series game at Fenway Park. The problem now is Josh Beckett. What we saw last night is that, for whatever reason, Beckett is not quite right. Either he’s still hurt or just isn’t sharp. Whichever it is, unless Boston sweeps the next three games, we’re looking at Beckett starting game 6, back at Tropicana Field next Saturday. It’s also entirely possible that the season will be on the line.

Dilemma #1: Do you want last night’s version of Josh Beckett starting that do-or-die game? If he was vintage 2007 Beckett, hell yeah. If it’s the Josh Beckett we’ve seen recently, not so much. The alternative would be to put Paul Byrd on the hill, which might conceivably be no better, and possibly much worse.

Dilemma #2: In the postseason, David Ortiz has 4 hits, no homers and 1 RBI in 23 at bats. He’s 0 for the ALCS. Jason Varitek is hitting .143 in the postseason. Jacoby Ellsbury is .207 in the same time period, with an on base percentage of .258. This is when you expect to face superior pitching, and although Pedroia, Youkilis and Bay are doing their part, the rest of the team has been handcuffed. What options do hitting coach Dave Magadan and manager Terry Francona have at their disposal? Not many. At this point, the lineup is set, and replacing Ortiz, ‘Tek and Ellsbury in the batting order with Sean Casey, Kevin Cash and Coco Crisp won’t improve the offense.

It’s still all about pitching, so seeing Jon Lester taking the mound for game 4 is hugely reassuring for Red Sox faithful. His tendency to get his team into the late innings will help take some pressure off the bullpen, and (I sincerely hope) keep Mike Timlin off the mound in important situations.

Friday, October 10, 2008

2008 ALCS Preview

Ok, so I was wrong about the ALDS. I expected the Angels to actually show up, and they didn’t. I did say that if the Red Sox beat the Angels, they’re in the World Series, and I stand by that. This is not to denigrate the Rays. This Tampa Bay Rays team is good. They’re young, hungry, talented and athletic. Their starting pitching is superb, their bullpen, always the traditional Achilles heel, is as good as anyone’s. Joe Maddon has them believing, and it’s been clear all year that nobody intimidates them. They’ve handled everyone and everything thrown in their way.

I’m picking the Red Sox for a couple reasons. One, my heart says I can’t bear to see my beloved Sox get dropped on the doorstep to the World Series by the freakin’ Tampa Bay Rays, of all teams. And two, the Red Sox have a seemingly endless supply of guts. Since the night that Aaron Boone took Tim Wakefield deep in October of 2003, the Red Sox have shown a wire tough resiliency in the face of all challenges. Overcoming decades of futility, bad play and bad luck to win in 2004 changed everything. Since then, Francona’s gang has had it figured out.

The St. Louis Cardinals were, on paper, a far better team than the Red Sox in the fall of 2004, and the Sox disposed of them as if they were the Washington Generals against the Globetrotters. Pujols, Walker, Rolen and company looked anemic. In October, pitching always wins. In 2007, the Indians were deep, tough, and also not the least bit intimidated by the AL East champion Red Sox, and with Josh Beckett’s help, Boston outlasted them. In the World Series, the Rockies weren’t a better team, but they came in white hot. The Red Sox put up an impregnable stone wall of pitching, and shut the Rockies down cold.

In the postseason, it’s always all about pitching and defense, and also the most intangible factor, toughness. The Red Sox know what is needed. Against the Angels, the heroes weren’t Pedroia, Youkilis and Ortiz. Game 4 was won in the bottom of the ninth by Jason Bay and Jed Lowrie, two guys who weren’t even regulars on the roster until after the All Star break (Lowrie had made early season appearances, but it wasn’t until Julio Lugo was hurt that he became a fixture). In ALDS Game 2, Bay and JD Drew both homered, and remember that Drew was a guy who hadn’t played all of September. What the Red Sox lineup does, and has been doing for most of the past five years, is exhaust opposing pitchers. They’re patient. They take more pitches per at bat than any other team, and in so doing stretch each inning, each rally, and make it harder for the opposing starting pitcher to get into and stay in comfortable grooves. When each pitch matters that much more, the Red Sox lunge at bad pitches that much less frequently (I constantly rail against “giving away at bats” by swinging at bad pitches). Mike Lowell won’t be on the ALCS roster, but the rest of the Red Sox roster showed Anaheim that they can succeed even without the 2007 World Series MVP. Combined with solid starting pitching from Dice K, Lester, Beckett and Wakefield, this plate discipline is ultimately going to make the difference against a younger, incrementally more eager Rays team.

In the 2003 ALCS, the Yankees had the confident swagger of a team that had been there before, that knew how to win, and trusted that if they hung in there long enough, the Red Sox would make the critical mistake that would, and did, ultimately cost them. By the 2004 ALCS, Boston was experienced enough to have learned that same lesson, and took advantage of their own newfound mental toughness to claw back from an 0-3 hole to win the league championship. I don’t believe a team can learn mental toughness. I believe you can only develop it via time and experience. Look at the players who were surrounding Michael Jordan on the Bulls. They needed time to “get it”. Same with the New York Giants, leading up to last year’s Super Bowl against the Patriots, or the Patriots leading up their first successful Super Bowl against the Rams. It’s a process, and it doesn’t generally happen the first time you’re in the bright lights. In the end, I think this is what’s going to bring the Red Sox their third American League pennant in five years. It’s not about one “this guy vs. that guy” matchup. It’s about knowing what it takes, and against the Angels, the Red Sox have proven they’re in the right frame of mind.

Prediction: Red Sox in 6.

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

2008 Division Series postmortem

• I had picked them to win the National League pennant, but I need to start this post by saying that like so many people in North America, I was suckered onto the Cubs bandwagon like an unwitting rube at a bad carnival attraction. Regardless of what the carny said, the Cubs suck.

• Vladimir Guerrero has become the new Alex Rodriguez: a tremendous talent who becomes an impotent non-entity when it matters in October.

• After further review, the play stands, and the Cubs still suck.

• Manny remains Manny. When he feels like paying attention, he IS the most lethal offensive force in the game, and nobody can stop him.

• Jon Lester is the 2008 version of Josh Beckett. Put him on the mound, and he’s automatic. Just imagine if 2007 vintage Beckett shows up against Tampa Bay…

• I don’t believe the Phillies can stand up to Manny and the DodgerTones.

• Kudos to the Milwaukee Brewers and their fans. Though this wasn’t their year, they were great fun to watch while it lasted.

• Seriously, there’s no two ways around it. The Cubs flat out suck.

• Those remarkable Tampa Bay Rays are for real. They’re not just a cute, cuddly, freak occurrence. They’re a dangerous bunch.

• Terry Francona, Theo Epstein and the entire Red Sox organization have created an environment where everyone plays hard all the time, nobody hangs their head, and as long as the game isn’t over, it’s never over. That’s why Jason Bay and Mark Kotsay were great pickups, why the Red Sox are in the ALCS, and why the Angels are flying home to Anaheim for the winter. The Red Sox no longer try not to lose. In the new millennium, they play to win.

• The White Sox were lucky just to be in the ALDS, and were completely outclassed by Tampa Bay. Count on heads rolling on the south side of Chicago. Could be worse, though. At least they’ve won the World Series recently, unlike the Cubs, who suck.

• Thanks in large part to Epstein’s organizational philosophies, the Red Sox homegrown youth movement will continue to yield dividends for years to come. Ellsbury, Youkilis, Pedroia, Lowrie, Lester, Masterson, Delcarmen and Papelbon are all critical parts of the machine, all are on the 2008 postseason roster, and none are over 29 years old. Best of all, there’s more talent on the way. This is a very good time to be a Red Sox fan.

• It was a treat to listen to Don Orsillo do the play by play for the White Sox-Rays series on TBS. The guy’s good. Could you imagine him trading off innings in the World Series with the legendary Vin Scully? How cool would that be?

• Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukodome, Ryan Theriot and the rest of the pathetic, choking, infuriating Cubs completely, totally suck. I’m not buying into their “we’re due! It’s finally our year!” bullshit ever again. As far as I’m concerned, they can rot for another hundred years. Hey, eventually we figured out how to win, and then did it again. Count on three immutable truths: death, taxes and the certainty that the Cubs are going to suck.

• If anyone is interested in buying a slightly used Cubs cap and windbreaker, let me know.

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

El Tiante's 2008 Posteason Awards

AL Cy Young: Cliff Lee, Indians 22-3, 2.54, 223 innings, all for a team that was never competitive. A WH/IP of 1.11. Lee may not have been 1972 vintage Steve Carlton, but he was close enough, don’t you think? Honorable mention: Francisco Rodriguez.

AL MVP: Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox It helped that Carlos Quentin got hurt, and Josh Hamilton faded. Still, Pedroia was the little engine that could: he led the league in hits, doubles, multi-hit games, finished second in batting average, and by the way, was a gold-glove caliber 2B. He was Mister Spark Plug. Joe Morgan won the MVP in 1975 with an eerily similar resume. What team did Morgan’s Reds beat that year to win the World Series? Wait, it’s on the tip of my tongue.

AL Rookie of the Year: Evan Longoria, Rays He’s already close to the best 3B in the game. As Pedroia was for Boston, Longoria was for the Rays. It shouldn’t be a shock that Pedroia won this award last year. I sense a trend. Honorable Mention: Alexei Ramirez, White Sox

AL Manager of the Year: Joe Maddon, Rays Are you kidding? Is there even another candidate? I don’t think there’s ever been an easier Manager of the Year choice. If anyone else gets a vote, I’ll be very disappointed.


NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum, Giants His 265 strikeouts led the league. Both of them. Second in the majors in ERA. And like Lee’s Indians and Carlton’s Phillies, the Giants y sucked. Honorable Mention: Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks.

NL MVP: Ryan Howard, Phillies Everyone else is telling you it will be Mr. Pujols of the Cardinals, but these are my awards. Howard’s great advantage was that he was a more critical force on a winning team. His 48 HR and 146 RBI both led the majors, and this year you know those numbers definitely didn’t come out of a needle. He’s 100%, certified clean. Without Howard, the Phillies finish behind the Marlins, and Charlie Manuel gets fired. Without Pujols, the Cardinals still finish in 4th place, and, well, nothing else very interesting happens, because Tony LaRussa will never get fired.

NL Rookie of the Year: Geovany Soto, Cubs He catches for the Cubs, and he started the All Star game. Can you believe he started 131 games? I mean seriously, he started more games than Varitek, and fewer than Joe Mauer, but Soto’s a ROOKIE. His leadership took a good pitching staff, and made them terrific. That’s good enough for me.

NL Manager of the Year: Lou Piniella, Cubs
Full disclosure: Lou Piniella’s my favorite ex-Yankee not named Gehrig. He also happens to be one of the best managers in the game. He kept this Cubs team focused and playing like a team all year, and they’ve now won the NL Central two years running. No Cubs fan has the nerve to admit this, as it would tempt the baseball gods, but thanks in large part to their rookie catcher and their outstanding manager, the Cubs are the best team in the National League. I’ll say that again: The Chicago Cubs are the best team in the National League.

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Two guys who didn’t play an inning this year, and you didn’t miss either one of them:
Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. See? If you don’t lie to the investigators, you get to play with the big boys. If you lie, you stay home and watch on TV.

How the mighty have fallen:
The Colorado Rockies, 2007’s darlings, finished this year 14 games under .500, 10 games behind the NL West champion Dodgers.

It’s all relative: As stated above, the Dodgers won the west, but their 84-78 record would have landed them in 5th place in the AL East, 10 games behind the Yankees. Of course, they’re not in the AL East, Joe Torre IS in the postseason, and there’s nothing Hank Steinbrenner or his $208 million can do about it.

El Tiante’s World Series prediction: Angels over the Cubs in 6 exciting, excruciatingly emotional games. Sorry, Cubs fans. 100 years still isn’t enough.